With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the Bretton Woods system II, led by the US dollar,
is in danger of disintegration. Outside of money – represented by gold and cryptocurrencies,
other commodities such as oil are gaining traction. As Russia claims to consider accepting
Bitcoin as payment for natural gas exports, it would not be impossible for Bitcoin to become an
international reserve currency in the future.
Since Bitcoin started its third bull market in the second half of 2020, two peaks have passed.
Bitcoin is currently in the third peak rising stage (wave B) of the Triple Top pattern. The current
wave B is mainly driven by the “currency substitution” effect caused by the Russian-Ukrainian
war. However, wave B is also the last “escape wave”. Currently, cryptocurrencies will face serious
uncertainty in the second half of this year as the market effect of the global interest rate hike
policy gradually shows.
Therefore, from the perspective of investment strategy, investors should be cautious in the short
term, and it is not recommended to blindly chase the market. In the long term, Bitcoin will still
be a high-quality asset and its value will likely increase in the future.
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Author: Huobi Research Institute ｜ William Lee，Timo Dong，Bridge Qiao